A New Listing, A Closing & A Look at the Mat-Su Market 
Insights from Dave & Travis

We’ve had a few things happening lately, so I wanted to share a quick update along with some October numbers I’ve been looking at for the Mat-Su Valley. First, we have a new listing on Lake Street in Eagle River, and we also recently closed on Iliamna Drive in Wasilla.

 

NEW LISTING — 12249 Lake Street #A5, Eagle River
This is a 2-bedroom, 1-bath condo with 935 square feet and a 1-car garage, listed at $235,000. It’s right in the heart of Eagle River, close to shopping, restaurants and everyday amenities. It does need some TLC, but that also gives someone the opportunity to put their own touches on it and make it their own

 

JUST SOLD — 2300 N Iliamna Drive, Wasilla
We also recently closed 2300 N Iliamna Drive in Wasilla. This one took a little longer than we originally expected. We listed it in April and were under contract for several months with a contingent buyer. Unfortunately, that contract eventually fell apart, so we went back on the market. We got it under contract again on September 2 and closed October 5. Altogether, it was 152 days on market, but once we had that second contract together, things moved along pretty smoothly. There were a few things that needed to be taken care of with the home, but I'm happy we were able to get this one closed and get it out from underneath our seller.

I spent some time digging into the October numbers, and I think the biggest takeaway is pretty simple: We’ve definitely shifted. Right now, in the Mat-Su core residential market, we have:

What jumped out at me is the comparison with last year. In October 2025, we had 377 active listings and 231 pendings. So pending sales are almost exactly the same 231 last year versus 235 this year. But inventory went from 377 homes to 451 homes. That’s about a 20% increase in homes competing for essentially the same number of pending buyers. That’s the shift.

 

And we're starting to get closer to the amount of inventory we used to see.
In October 2019, we had 552 active listings and 331 pendings, for a 60% ratio.
Today we're at 451 actives, so inventory is moving back toward those levels but we only have 235 pendings compared with 331 back then. That's why we're seeing buyers with more choices, more price reductions and homes taking a little longer to sell.
Homes are still selling. But sellers have more competition.

 

The market also looks very different depending on what price range you're in.
$200,000–$400,000
98 Active | 71 Pending | 72% Ratio | 30 Days on Market
$400,000–$600,000
196 Active | 97 Pending | 49% Ratio | 36 Days on Market
$600,000–$1 Million
117 Active | 56 Pending | 48% Ratio | 41 Days on Market

 

The $200,000–$400,000 range is clearly tighter. Once you get over $400,000, the pending-to-active ratio drops below 50%, and days on market start going up. Interestingly, the $400,000–$600,000 range still has the most sales year to date at 586, so there's definitely business happening there. There's just more competition for those buyers right now. That's why I always say you can't just look at the overall Mat-Su market. You really need to look at your price range and the homes you're competing against.

 

I also separated existing homes from new construction. Of our 451 active homes:
324 are existing homes — 72%
127 are new construction — 28%
But new construction represents 37% of the pending sales. The pending-to-active ratios are:
Existing homes: 46%
New construction: 69%

 

Now, new construction is averaging 57 days on market compared with 31 days for existing homes, so I wouldn't simply say new construction is selling faster.
But it is capturing a larger share of pending activity compared with the amount of inventory available. That's something existing-home sellers need to keep in mind.
Depending on the price range, you're not just competing with another resale down the street. You may also be competing with builders offering a brand-new home and sometimes incentives to go with it.

 

If I had to sum up October, I wouldn’t say the Mat-Su market has stopped. It hasn’t. But I would say buyers have more choices and sellers have more competition. The best example is probably this:

For buyers, there may be more opportunity to slow down, compare properties and negotiate depending on the home and price range.
For sellers, it doesn’t mean you can’t sell or get a good price.

It means pricing, condition and presentation matter more than they did when inventory was extremely tight. And most importantly, don’t base your decision on a headline about the overall market. As these numbers show, the market can look very different depending on your location, price range and type of property.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling and want to know what the numbers look like for your specific situation, give Travis or me a call. We’ll be happy to take a look.