September 2026 Market Update Insights from Dave & Travis

Last week gave me a pretty good reminder of how quickly life can change and how important it is to keep things in perspective.

The morning started out normally until I got a call from Karen saying she had been in a wreck...and then her phone died. Needless to say, I jumped in the car pretty worried and headed toward her work looking for her. She had been stopped waiting to make a left turn when another vehicle came up behind her and didn’t stop. The impact pushed her across the road and into the ditch.

Thankfully, Karen is okay. She’s pretty sore, and the truck may not have been as lucky, but I’m just grateful she walked away from it. Now we get to deal with the insurance side of things which is never much fun! Moments like that have a way of reminding you to appreciate the people around you and not take the everyday routine for granted. Karen is resting and recovering, and we’re very thankful.

 

If you’ve been wondering whether buyers are still buying, whether more inventory is changing the market, or what’s happening with home prices, September gives us a pretty good snapshot of where things stand.

 

For September 2026, the Mat-Su Valley core area had:

Last September, we had 377 active listings and 268 pending sales, with a 71% pending-to-active ratio.

So we definitely have more homes available than we did a year ago.
But here’s the part I think is important:

Pending sales increased from 268 last September to 293 this September. That tells us buyers haven’t disappeared. They simply have more choices.

What does that mean for buyers?
This is a better environment if you want time to look around, compare homes, and make a thoughtful decision. Depending on the property, there may also be more opportunity to negotiate on price, repairs, closing costs, or other terms. That doesn’t mean every seller is going to take a low offer. The good homes are still getting attention.

What does that mean for sellers?
More inventory means more competition. With 443 active listings, buyers can afford to be selective. Pricing, condition, photography, presentation, and marketing all matter.
You can absolutely still sell well in this market but getting the details right from the beginning is more important.

 

 

Through September, we’ve had 1,049 residential sales year-to-date in the Mat-Su core area. Here’s how that compares over the last several years:

 

We’re running just slightly behind last year, but we’re still ahead of where we were in both 2023 and 2024.

So yes, the market has changed from the pace we saw a few years ago, but homes are still selling.

Now look at prices.

The average sales price in the Mat-Su core area is now $470,000.

That’s another increase from last year. And when you step back and look at where prices were in 2019 compared with today, it’s a pretty significant change.

For buyers:

More inventory does not automatically mean falling prices. You have more choices today, but average prices are still higher than they were last year.

If you’re waiting for the entire market to suddenly get dramatically cheaper, that’s not what these numbers are showing us.

And interest rates aren’t giving buyers much help either.

A 30-year fixed mortgage is around 7% right now, about the highest we’ve seen this year, and projections are for rates to remain elevated for quite some time.

That makes the financing side of the deal just as important as the purchase price.

One strategy we’re looking at more closely with buyers is an interest-rate buydown, especially when we can negotiate for the seller to pay for it. With more inventory on the market, some sellers may be willing to contribute toward a buydown or closing costs rather than simply reducing the price.

Waiting for rates to come down may not necessarily be the best strategy either. If rates stay elevated while home prices continue to rise, waiting could mean paying more for the same house later.

That doesn’t mean you should rush into buying. It means you need to look at the whole deal  the property, the price, financing, seller concessions, neighborhood, and your own situation.

 

For sellers:

Values are still holding strong, but a strong average sales price doesn’t mean every home will sell at any price.

Today’s buyers are looking closely at their monthly payment as well as the purchase price.

With more inventory competing for those buyers, offering something like a seller-paid interest-rate buydown can sometimes be a very effective way to make your home stand out without immediately making a large price reduction.

A realistic price, good presentation, and the right financing strategy can make a big difference.

 

 

One thing we say all the time is that there really isn’t just one “Alaska real estate market.” What’s happening in Mat-Su can look very different from Anchorage or from the statewide numbers.

 

Anchorage residential is running at an 88% pending-to-active ratio, while Mat-Su is at 66% and the statewide number is 52%. That’s a pretty good example of why looking only at a statewide headline doesn’t always tell you what’s happening in your own backyard.

For buyers and sellers:
Where you’re buying or selling matters.
Even within Mat-Su or Anchorage, one neighborhood, price range, or property type can behave differently from another.
That’s why we’d rather look at the numbers specific to your home and your situation than make decisions based on a general headline.

 

If I had to describe the Mat-Su market right now, I’d call it:

• Active, but more selective.
• Buyers have more choices.
• Sellers still have strong values.
• Prices are continuing to hold up.
• Interest rates remain a challenge
• Creative financing and seller-paid rate buydowns are becoming more important

And with 293 homes currently pending in the Mat-Su core area, people are definitely still buying. This isn’t the market we had a few years ago when it sometimes felt like almost anything would sell immediately.

But it’s also certainly not a market where nothing is moving. Good homes that are priced and marketed correctly are still selling. And buyers who understand what’s happening may have opportunities they didn’t have when inventory was much tighter.

If you’re wondering what these numbers mean for your home, your neighborhood, or your plans, give Travis or me a call.

We’re always happy to look at the numbers with you and give you our thoughts.
No pressure just real information to help you make a good decision.

Take care of yourselves and your families.