Anchorage Residential - A Surprising Comparison
Anchorage closed 1,728 residential sales in 2025 only slightly more than the Mat-Su Valley, despite having roughly three to four times the population.
- Average Anchorage sales price: $533,000
- Average days on market: 25
- Sales growth year over year: about 2%
- Price growth year over year: about 4%
For perspective, Anchorage closed over 2,700 homes in 2021 and more than 2,100 in 2019. Today’s numbers highlight how inventory constraints not demand continue to limit activity there.
(We’re also keeping an eye on Anchorage condo activity, which often gives early clues about shifts in buyer behavior.)
Statewide & Kenai - Big Picture Context
Across Alaska:
5,221 total sales
$467,000 average price
41 days on market
Sales up 1.6% year over year
Prices up 4.9% year over year
Even with price growth, statewide sales remain well below 2019 levels, when Alaska recorded more than 6,200 sales.
The Kenai Peninsula tells a slightly different story.
725 total sales
$398,000 average price
Sales volume there is closer to 2019 levels, though prices are significantly higher another reminder that each region moves at its own pace and strategy matters.
Looking Ahead, Market Expectations
As we look forward, here’s how the broader housing outlook shapes up:
Mortgage Rates:
Rates are expected to settle around 6%, improving affordability and creating buyer opportunities. That said, don’t expect home prices to fall demand and limited supply continue to support values.
Inventory:
Gradual improvement is expected as builders increase supply and normal life changes—retirements, job relocations, and household shifts bring more homes to market.
Home Sales:
Nationally, home sales are forecasted to rise by about 10%, with roughly 4.5 million transactions projected. Realistically, the market needs closer to 5–6 million annual sales to meet long-term demand, which suggests continued pressure on housing availability.
What This Means Going Into 2026
Here’s the clearer takeaway as we head into the new year:
• Sellers: Demand is still there, but pricing correctly from the start matters more than ever.
• Buyers: More options exist than in recent years, and leverage is slowly improving as rates trend in the right direction.
• Planners: The market has shifted from frenzy to strategy often a healthier environment for making good decisions.
Zooming out, Alaska real estate has always been a long-term story. Periods of rapid growth are followed by normalization, but demand driven by lifestyle, jobs, and limited supply remains.
If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just planning ahead, I’m always happy to talk through what these numbers mean for your situation.
