"Dave's Alaska Homes Market Insights for Home Buyers and Sellers"
Over the past five years, we've seen active listings shrink significantly from 477 in 2019 to 201 in 2024, Pending sales hit a high of 409 in 2021 but have since settled to 188 in 2024. Homes are spending a bit more time on the market now, 52 days on average, compared to 36 days in 2022. Sale volumes saw a high of 185 in 2022 but have adjusted to 129 in 2024. Most notably, average sales prices have surged from $261,000 in 2019 to $393,000 in 2024.
While we do see a small increase in supply from 2023 we still need many more homes to meet the continued strong demand.
In the Mat-Su Valley core area, as of February 2024, we're seeing a total of 201 active listings. Delving deeper, existing homes represent 57% of these listings, while new construction makes up a significant 43%.
Pending sales stand at 188, with existing homes again leading at 66% and new construction at 34%. The days on market tell a compelling story — existing homes are selling faster, typically in about 41 days, whereas new constructions take longer, around 79 days. This could mean a quicker turnaround for sellers of existing homes and a chance for buyers to capitalize on new constructions potentially having more room for negotiation.
Year-to-date sales have hit 129, with existing homes comprising 72% of these sales. On the financial front, existing homes are averaging at $356,000, while those opting for new construction are seeing an average price of $486,000.
Here's a quick dive into how current mortgage interest rates may impact your real estate decisions. With a historical view from Freddie Mac, we've got data stretching from 1973 to 2024. The highest mortgage rates occurred in 1982 topping out at over 17%! And of course the lowest rates EVER occurred in 2021 at under 3%. It's interesting that between 2010 and 2020 rates remained below 5% for that entire period! Oh to get back to 5% or so! I don't think we will ever see 3% and under again but who knows.
Today, we're looking at a mortgage rate of approximately 7% for conventional 30 year fixed rate loans up from December when the market corrected and pushed rates down closer to 6%. We do expect mortgage rates to moderate in 2024 but I think this will happen slowly.
For sellers, this could mean a continued influx of buyers looking to lock in rates before any potential increases. Your home's value remains supported by these historically low rates, allowing for competitive pricing and the possibility of swift transactions.
Buyers, this is your cue: the current rates are still significantly lower than the decades-long average. Securing a home now could mean more choices. When rates drop, homes become more affordable to buyers which means more competition for the still historically low inventory..More bidding wars!
Whether you're buying a home, looking to sell, or contemplating an investment property let's discuss how we can leverage this knowledge to your advantage and navigate the market with confidence. We are here to provide the expertise and support you need. Let's make the most of these opportunities together.
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If you or anyone you know has ANY thoughts of buying or selling real estate, lets connect to talk about the opportunities available in our market and how to reach your goals.
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Call or text Dave now at 907-863-7289
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