Mat-Su February 2026 Market Update & Smart Planning for Where You’ll Live As You Age - Insights from Dave & Travis

by David Johnson

Mat-Su Valley February 2026 Market Update

I want to share a clear snapshot of what’s happening right now in the Mat-Su “Core Area” market and more importantly, what it means for you if you’re thinking about buying or selling this year.

 
I’ve been tracking February numbers going back to 2019, and the trend tells a story.

Back in February 2019, we had 477 active listings and 242 pending sales , about a 51% pending-to-active ratio.
Then we all remember 2021 and 2022 when pending sales were dramatically outpacing available homes. That was the ultra-competitive stretch where buyers were competing aggressively.

Fast forward to February 2026:
  • 213 active listings
 
  • 195 pending sales

  • 92% pending-to-active ratio
That 92% number is important.

We’re no longer in the extreme seller frenzy.
But we’re also far from slow.
Homes are still moving. Demand is steady. Inventory is moderate not overwhelming.

What This Means for You

If You’re a Buyer

You have more breathing room than during the peak frenzy years.
There are fewer bidding wars compared to 2021–2022.
There’s more opportunity to negotiate  whether that’s price, repairs, or closing costs. But here’s the key: with nearly as many homes pending as active, well-priced homes are still going under contract quickly.
The strategy today isn’t rushing.
It’s being prepared and making smart decisions.


If You’re a Seller
Demand is still strong 195 homes went pending last month.
Buyers are active and writing contracts. However, pricing matters more than it did two years ago.
This isn’t the “name your price” market but it’s also not weak.
Homes that are priced correctly and show well are still moving efficiently. The advantage right now?
 The buyers in the market are serious. These aren’t just lookers they’re decision-makers.
 
Sales & Price Perspective
 
Let’s zoom out for context:
  • February 2019: 118 sales | Avg price $261,000

  • February 2022 (peak activity): 185 sales | Avg price $372,000

  • February 2025: 108 sales | Avg price $441,000

  • February 2026: 121 sales | Avg price $457,000
Here’s what stands out:
We’re seeing more balanced sales activity compared to the frenzy years.
But prices have steadily climbed  from $261,000 in 2019 to $457,000 today.
That’s significant long-term appreciation here in the Valley.
 
Existing Homes vs. New Construction (February 2026)
 
Existing Homes
  • 142 active (67% of inventory)

  • 128 pending

  • Avg price: $427,000
Resale homes are still moving at a healthy pace.
If they’re priced right and show well, buyers are there. The biggest mistake I see? Overpricing because inventory feels tight.
Buyers are paying attention to value. For buyers, this segment offers more options and some negotiation flexibility depending on condition and location.

New Construction
  • 85 active

  • 67 pending

  • Avg price: $537,000
New construction is commanding about a $110,000 premium over existing homes.
Builders are still seeing demand, but buyers are payment-sensitive at this price point. Incentives and rate buydowns are playing a role. For buyers, you’re paying more but gaining energy efficiency, lower maintenance, and sometimes builder concessions.

The question becomes:
Do you want newer finishes or more price flexibility?

The Big Picture
This is not a crash market.

This is not a runaway seller market.
This is a balanced, healthier market.
Preparation and pricing win right now.

If you’re selling, you likely have more equity than you realize but strategy matters.

If you’re buying, you have more stability and less panic competition than we’ve seen in years.

Every neighborhood behaves differently.
Palmer isn’t Wasilla. Wasilla isn’t Big Lake.

If you’d like to see what these numbers look like specifically for your home, your price range, or your neighborhood  reach out.

No pressure. Just real data so you can make a smart decision.
 

Where Will You Live As You Age? Let’s Talk Strategy.

 
As we help folks think through major life decisions like buying or selling a home, I’ve been reflecting on something just as important: planning for where you’ll live and how you’ll get (and pay for) care as you age.

I recently read a solid, practical guide from Tayva Taylor at Alaska Law & Mediation that breaks this down in a way everyone should consider  especially if you’re building a life (and legacy) here in Alaska. Planning for aging isn’t just about housing  it’s about protection, choices, and peace of mind. That matters whether you’re planning for yourself or helping aging parents.

Here’s the gist of what she covers:

Where You Might Live as You Get Older

There are a few paths many families take and each comes with different financial and legal considerations:

  • Staying in your own home as long as possible, tweaking it for comfort and safety.
  • Independent living communities that give more support with less daily responsibility.
  •  Assisted-living or memory care facilities when help with daily tasks becomes necessary.
  • Skilled nursing or continuing-care communities for more intensive medical needs.

Why This Isn’t Just a Housing Decision

The costs of long-term care can be staggering  many nursing facilities cost thousands per month. Without thoughtful planning, long-term care expenses can quickly eat into a lifetime of savings. They also affect eligibility for programs like Medicaid, which has strict rules and look-back periods that can limit your options if you wait too long to get organized.
 
Documents You Really Need Before You or a Loved One Has a Crisis
One of the biggest takeaways is this:

If you wait until you need care to get important legal documents in place, it will be much harder  and more expensive  to protect your choices and your assets. Durable powers of attorney (financial and healthcare) are key tools you want before any sudden health change.
 
Bonus Insight You Might Not Expect

Some aging adults may qualify for programs like VA Aid & Attendance benefits, which can help with home care or assisted living  if you plan ahead and understand eligibility rules.

If this is something that’s crossed your mind  even a little  I encourage you to give the full guide a read and start the conversation with someone who can help you plan ahead.
I also want to remind you that Tayva Taylor, who works with our office and brings great clarity around estate planning, elder law, and mediation, has built out a lot of helpful content around these topics. She’s a great resource if you’re thinking about aging, asset protection, or quality of life as you plan your next chapter.
 
You can explore Tayva’s work here:

https://alaskamediation.org
 
Free Estate Planning Seminar – Anchorage
Tayva is hosting a FREE Estate Planning Seminar in Anchorage:

Location: Z.J. Loussac Library
Date: Saturday, March 28, 2026
Time: 1:00 PM – 2:00 PM
Seating is limited, registration required
Email Address: office@alaskalawandmediation.com
Alternate Website: https://www.alaskalawandmediation.com
 
 
 
We wanted to kick off this week with some exciting news!

265 N Tatlow Drive, Palmer, AK 99645 – Just Pending!
Listed: 02/21/2026
Pending in just 4 days on market

This spacious 3-bedroom, 2.75-bath home in the Butte moved quickly and for good reason.
 
We just put it on the market this week and got it under contract real quick.

We’re working with Jeremy Millen on the other side great agent, great offer. Honestly, it was one of those offers where you don’t even need to counter. You just look at it, smile, and sign it. Those are always the best kinds.

I’m especially happy for my sellers. I helped them buy this home back in 2016, and now with the kids grown and gone, it was time for a new chapter. We got the home prepped, positioned it right, brought it to market and just like that, we’re under contract and set to close quickly.

That’s what happens when you prepare well and price it right.
 
If you missed Tatlow don’t worry. There are still strong options available.
 
Still Looking? Here Are More Opportunities

 
Whether you're buying, selling, or just planning ahead, now’s a great time to chat about your options — I’m here if you need a strategy that fits your goals!
 

LET US BE YOUR TRUSTED GUIDE

Call or text Dave now at 907-863-7289
Call or text Travis now at 907-575-6779

davesalaskahomes@gmail.com

http://www.DavesAlaskaHomes. com

David Johnson

David Johnson

Broker Associate | License ID: 15839

+1(907) 863-7289

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